This article is an analysis of the recent treaty made by the government of Pakistan with a Taliban group in the Swat area of its north western province. Click to read.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
About Me
- Muqtedar Khan
- Dr. Muqtedar Khan is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Delaware.
I think the full effects of Pakistan recognizing the Taliban as the authority in these areas won’t come to the forefront until this spring and summer. President Obama has called for an increase of US forces in Afghanistan by 17,000 to combat the annual outbreak of violence that comes with the end of winter and the return of warmer temperatures. As the article mentions, creating this safe haven in Pakistan for Taliban and Al Qaeda forces is quite problematic. Pakistan has legitimized the Taliban’s base and effectively given them free reign to launch attacks into Afghanistan and against the American forces there. With US troop deaths in Afghanistan increasing (and increasing to near Iraq levels), this newfound security is likely to embolden the Taliban and create further problems for the US.
ReplyDeleteThe situation is confounded even more when one considers the effects of this truce on US-Pakistani relations. If there is a rise in attacks against US forces in Afghanistan coming from Pakistan, the US seems to be stuck on what options they have. While US Predator drones have been used in the past to attack targets in Pakistan, Pakistan resents this violation of its sovereignty and it has become a point of contention in relations between the two countries. (In fact, there was a big hubbub over Obama’s comments during the 2008 election that he would be open to launching attacks against any high-value targets in Pakistan that Pakistan failed or refused to act upon). In the past, the US has put pressure on Pakistan to do more to quell Taliban forces in this area so that the drone strikes would be unnecessary. However, now that the Pakistani military is out of the picture and not putting pressure on the Taliban, the US option of air strikes seems to be the only response that the US has at its disposal to retaliate against any cross-border raids, short of sending ground troops in (which would be an untenable action to the American public).
Any military response by the US in Pakistan, however, is likely to make Pakistan more unstable. As mentioned in the article, Pakistan needs to regain its cohesiveness. If its sovereignty is violated by the US this will only strengthen the perception that Pakistan is quickly becoming unable to manage its internal affairs and is moving quickly towards further instability. This perception is furthered even more when one considers the Mumbai attacks of last year and the recent attack on the cricket players. Pressure is mounting against Pakistan for it to regain control of itself. While ceding authority to the Taliban may provide temporary calm, in the long term it seems likely that this action will only cause further instability.
What a reprehensible truce. And for multiple reasons. Nevermind that the ceasefire has only been upheld by the federal government. After it was signed, a member of an anti-Taliban family was killed after returning to what he thought was his peaceful village. On March 4, two Pakistani soldiers were killed by the Taliban for failing to inform them that they were going to be escorting a water tanker.
ReplyDeleteIf this were a “truce” it would be difficult to explain why local mosques are asking that each family contribute a young man to the Taliban’s ranks, and it would seem equally anachronistic that government schools would be used as training grounds where dogs are turned loose for target practice. The only logical conclusion is that this is no “truce” at all.
Another tragedy is the fate of Swat’s culture. As was in the case in Afghanistan under the Taliban, strict observation of sharia law and Salafist beliefs are implemented. Music is now banned. Boxes are being installed where anti-Islamic behavior is to be anonymously reported. And perhaps most troubling of all, female schools are unlikely to reopen, partly because the provincial government is rather poor and it would be an expensive task to rebuild schools that were burnt down in the recent months.
The truce is thus not a deal that promises total security: it sacrifices (supposed) local tranquility actually for inevitable global insecurity. Those who signed and negotiated the deal have said that this agreement does not negate their jihad against the Americans, as Sufi Muhammad has already recruited thousands of volunteers to fight the coalition forces in Afghanistan.
Once sovereignty is surrendered, it’s difficult to get it back peacefully. Our biggest concern should be what happens if terrorists seek refuge and become guests in Swat. Swat leaders will demand to have their territorial integrity respected, and any incursion will meet stiff resistance and opposition in a country already rattled by civilian casualties.
Pakistan has just turned over many citizens over to the very group of people they have defeated in local elections. Those who have not fled are now involuntary wards of Islamic totalitarianism in a location much closer to Pakistan’s capital, promising a much riskier confrontation in the future.
The situation in Pakistan seems pretty hopeless. I agree that a cohesive Pakistani state would be desirable, but how is this to be achieved? The article states that the US and nearby powers such as India should help. But what can be done? Pakistan will not allow any military intervention that would breach their sovereignty, and the US is already spread thin on that front in the first place. Efforts to settle things diplomatically is what ended up in this truce in the first place. The Taliban don't seem to have any interest in saving lives, since they continue to murder Pakistani military and civilians alike even after the truce was set, so their doesn't seem to be any common ground to build a relationship on that might lead to a agreeable situation for all. What is there besides military force, which is problematic in itself, that can force the Taliban to step down?
ReplyDeleteThe Taliban's violence in Swat in the northwest region of Pakistan has gotten out of control. The government has now denounced its peace agreements and cease-fire with the Taliban because of the widespread violence and brutality that they are inflicting on innocent civilians. Hundreds of thousands of people are now feeling the area and a refugee problem is imminent. The Taliban and Al Qaeda are making huge advances into Pakistan, and have no come within 60 miles of Islamabad. There is the growing threat that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal will be in jeopardy. The situation continues to deteriorate daily.
ReplyDeleteBecause of the government's seeming complacency with the Taliban in the past, they have lost credibility in the eyes of the international community. This is compounded by the fact that they will not let U.S. troops into the country to fight alongside the Pakistani military or secure the border between Afghanistan in Pakistan. The Taliban has been allowed to freely move back and forth between the two countries, attacking American's and Afghanis and recruiting new members. The Pakistani military needs to secure the border on their side in order to contain the Taliban insurgents but they also need to prove their willingness to combat them. Without international help, which they have made repeatedly clear that they do not want, our troops are at risk and the stability of both Afghanistan and Pakistan is wavering.
The world is facing an interesting situation with the recent developments in Pakistan. Because it borders Afghanistan, events there affect the American troop deployment. As the number of troops increases, it becomes more essential that Pakistan and the US be on the same page regarding relations with foreign entities. Since 2001, the US has been thwarting the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. In a recent turn of events, it seems that Pakistan is doing just the opposite. By allowing Sharian Law to govern the Swat region of the North Western Frontier Province, the Pakistani government is appeasing to the terrorist organization. We all know how well that worked out the last time.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, there are no good solutions to the problem that is Pakistan. The government is preventing any action that threatens their sovereignty and diplomatic solutions apparently lead to appeasement. Right now, the nation is in dire straights. Literacy is already low so as the Taliban destroys libraries and prevents girls from going to school, the problem is only being exacerbated.
As negotiations and talks continue, one can only hope for a quick resolution to the problems plaguing this region. As the Taliban and Al-Qaeda use their ties to Pakistan to plan and launch attacks against Americans, it is in the interest of the US to stress a solution. However, what more can the US do right now? Hopefully, cooler and more peaceful heads will prevail.
The decision of the Pakistani government to concede the Swat area to the Taliban and allow such radicals to administer Sharia law in a chaotic and violent way is a decision which will have severe repercussions in the yeas to come. I agree with Professor Khan that the implosion of this Islamic state is inevitable. The real tragedy is the ensuing violence and the victims subjected to the Taliban’s violent and debilitating tactics in the area.
ReplyDeleteIt will now be all the more difficult to establish peace and stability in neighboring Afghanistan. The Taliban now has a haven where they can retreat, recruit and regroup. This ability to rest in the Swat area, and to constantly replenish their insurgent forces in Afghanistan will surely bolster their determination and perseverance within the region and I am quite discouraged about the ability for American troops to pull out of Afghanistan.
It is unfathomable to me that Pakistan is so willing to risk destabilization within its borders and surrounding its borders while also maintaining an alliance with the United States. Although the Pakistani government figured it could pacify the Taliban by giving jurisdiction over the Swat area, did they really think the Taliban would turn to peaceful practices? Perhaps, as some theorists suggest, the Pakistani government made this move to disassociate its governance with the Swat area so that the United States can aggressively quell the Taliban presence without compromising its official relations with Pakistan. Regardless, giving the Taliban land is indisputably conceding legitimacy to a terrorist, backward group and the international community should not stand for such recognition and pacification attempts for those who seek to undermine humanity.
Immediately after the Pakistani government ceded control of the Swat region to the Taliban in February, Dr. Khan commented that the churning contradictions of political loyalty that define Pakistan are “fault lines that will eventually lead to an implosion.” Three months later, his prediction seems to be holding true as Pakistan faces the most dire refugee crisis in its history. As I read more and more about the two million human beings in Pakistan who have already been displaced during the Pakistani offensive to reclaim the Swat valley, I cannot help but wonder: what did President Zardari expect? With his February attempt to make peace between the Pakistani army and the Taliban, the Pakistani government’s policy of appeasement gave political legitimacy to the very extremism that it seeks to defeat.
ReplyDeleteCritics who have likened Asif Ali Zardari to Neville Chamberlain are not entirely off the mark; Pakistan’s policy of appeasement, as it were, has not satisfied the insurgents in Swat who have terrorized civilians and clashed with the Pakistani army since 2007. The Pakistani government argued that the transfer of sovereignty to the Taliban would deprive insurgents of the Swat valley-—where both the Taliban and Al Qaeda have grown—-of “a cause that gives them legitimacy, purpose, and public support”, thereby thwarting the spread of extremism. However, as the last three months have shown, the Taliban and Al Qaeda militants who have flooded through the North West Frontier Province are still determined to accomplish quite the opposite.
Zardari now likens the war between the Pakistani Army and the Taliban rebels to an existential struggle. Certainly, Pakistan and the rest of the world cannot afford to allow the army to be overrun by Taliban insurgents, particularly in light of the fact that Pakistan has nuclear arms. Commentators disagree about the actual possibility of nuclear arms falling into Taliban hands, though: Obama has publicly expressed his confidence that such an event would be very unlikely, while former UN representative John Bolton has called it a much greater threat. Whether a nuclear-armed Taliban is likely or not, the very idea should be enough to stir the world into greater political, financial, and even military support for Pakistan.
At the same time, there must be more action taken to alleviate the suffering of millions of humans who have left their homes in droves in order to stay alive. Even as war is waged over Mingora, Swat’s main city, only about five percent of the city’s 200,000 residents have remained there. Those who flee meet camp conditions with little infrastructure, health care facilities, clean water, or even food. In the face of a government unprepared to handle a refugee crisis of such proportions and a global community whose contributions to just about every cause have been limited by financial strain, the future of hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis is imperiled.
- Elizabeth Davis
As Pakistan strives to survive in the Middle East, its survival does not just depend on its victory over the Taliban. I believe one of the largest battle it faces is the battle with its violate economy. Plagued by high inflation rates, a large fiscal deficit, and a collapsing stock and financial market, the nation is finding it harder to protect its citizens from the threat of terrorism and loss of land in the Swat Valley. While the economy is being held up with the support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the nation’s leaders are in dire need for more monetary assistance. With the economy in shambles and the government unable to properly defend itself, Pakistan found itself becoming a haven for terrorist operations not only in its own country. Without this necessary assistance, the government is faced with the menacing problem of not being able to adequately fund for the protection of its sovereignty.
ReplyDeleteAs the economy begins to falter, Pakistani officials were finding it hard not only to fund the necessary programs for domestic security, but were also finding it difficult to keep the unity of its political structure. As the government of President Asif Ali Zardari moved into power and removed the military from the civil administration of the nation, a great void of jealousy and mistrust grew between the two powers. As the mistrust grows between the two branches, its political balance will begin to slowly topple. This swaggering of the political infrastructure combined with its crumbling economy makes it harder for the nation to become the modern state in the Middle East that the US so desperately needs.
With the recent surge in Pakistani military efforts in the region, it will be interesting to see how this article plays out in the next few months.
ReplyDeleteI agree that it is a huge mistake to yield territory and power to the Taliban. Doing so not only undermines the control over the country that the government experiences, but also destabilizes the AF-PAK border region and American efforts in Afghanistan. Giving these warlords a safe haven from which to operate and regroup seems to be a strategic blunder on multiple levels.
Giving the region Shariah law, however, may not be so apocryphal as your article would make it seem. It's my understanding that there was widespread support for the implementation of Shariah, as opposed to the Western system of law. In these rural regions, the courts are often far over extended and cases are frequently not heard for a long time, even for trivial cases that really only require minor retribution. With the implementation of Shariah law, conflicts can be resolved on a case by case basis much quicker and cheaper than Western law can. While conducting legal matters quickly and cheaply is definitely not necessarily good, the majority of locals seem to think that the current Western system is simply not working. It is a case of assuming that one system can fit all cases, and clearly it cannot. I do not have high hopes for Shariah law to be implemented fairly and effectively respect human rights, but to the locals apparently some change is better than none.
Honey I shrunk Pakistan is an article that in light of very recent events after this article was written is a foreshadowing of what was to come. I mean blowing up schools and banning girls from education is an acceptable occurrence according to the Taliban. Yes according to the Taliban, the Sharia law is the only way to go with law and order with the Taliban using its effect into terrorizing towns into fleeing or submission. Our responses are supposed to be intellectual and insightly but what this does instead is provoke the injustices of the entire world that makes it unbearable to deal with. The ordeal that Pakistan is dealing with 2 million refugees at this time in May 2009 a couple of months after this article came out shows the serious plight of the average citizen. The Taliban overwhelms the Pakistan army. However, why does the Taliban think they are right? Is it because I am from a western country brought up with western thought that I would think what they were doing in the severe traditional sense of politic and religion is wrong? Well when you have girls banned from education, this is one thing that makes the Taliban backward and appalling and a dictator organization to keep the local people in line. The Taliban are gaining territory and soon and the country could have different Nationalistic movements in one country. Clearly, the Taliban have to be dismantled as many human beings are suffering from the policies and practices of this insufferable group.
ReplyDeleteSadly, most of your predictions in the article came true in less than three months. Zardari's government hoped that by giving the extremists in the NWFP Shariah law, it would weaken their cause and power in the region, but as you predicted, quite the opposite happened. The "peace deal" emboldened the militants to push out of Swat valley and conquer the neighboring areas, moving towards Islamabad. The government finally began to realize the potential danger to the state of Pakistan and eventually launched a military offensive to try to reverse Taliban gains this month, with the US dedicating more troops in Afghanistan to push the Taliban south. However, the Taliban are tenacious fighters and will continue to fight the Pakistani military and NATO forces simultaneously. Due to the sustained fighting, there now exists over 2 million internally displaced people and Pakistan's economy is hurting. Could this have been averted if Zardari's government never agreed to the peace deal? Given the persistent nature of the extremists, fighting was inevitable, but perhaps it would have happened on a smaller-scale with less devastating effects on civilian Pakistanis if the Taliban never felt invigorated by the peace deal and were not given time to strengthen their networks and gather resources and manpower.
ReplyDeleteIn your article, you mentioned how the development of Pakistan is threatened by the Taliban's "campaign against education," and how Pakistan already suffers from a low literacy rate. I think this is a very important point because victory against the Taliban will not be won by military means alone - education is a key factor. Pakistan has excellent universities, but those fine educational opportunities are only available to a small percentage of the overall population - mostly from the upper social class. After the separation of India and Pakistan, India invested in numerous schools all around the country, which greatly increased their literacy rate and contributed to the growth of the middle class. Pakistan needs to follow suit and expend more of their budget on education, particularly in rural areas like the NWFP and for women. Education and job creation are important underused weapons the government can use to undermine the Taliban.
When this article was first posted on March 5, Pakistan was a country in crisis. In the aftermath of the US occupation of Afghanistan, the Taliban had began to relocate its operations into the Pakistani providence of Warzistan and slowly but surely began spreading throughout Pakistan. The Pakistani government realized they had a problem on their hands when the Taliban was targeting areas further away from the sparsely populated tribal areas and closer to the Capital city of Islamabad. With its decision to concede the Swat territory, the Pakistani government was essentially delaying the inevitable; a full-scale conflict between the Pakistani government and the Taliban, and this was fulfilled in the past few weeks with the truce being suspended. It has resulted in a massive refugee crisis with over 2 million displaced persons.
ReplyDeleteAllowing the Taliban to utilize the Swat region as a safe haven for the past few months only compounded the Pakistani government’s task in removing the Taliban from Pakistan. In the past two months they have imposed Islamic war on the region, burning down schools, executing dissenters, and recruiting more extremists. This is problematic because one of the best defenses against extremism is an educational system that allows citizens to become knowledgeable in their surroundings and open to different schools of thought other than Islamic extremism. While the Pakistani government had committed a terrible mistake in granting the Taliban sanctuary in the Swat region, it is better now than never to end that truce before the Taliban are no longer appeased with simply the Swat region and move onto Islamabad.
Territory and power cannot be surrendered to the Taliban. Removing the threat from Northern Pakistan is intergral not only to the success of the war in Afghanistan but also to the future of Pakistan itself. While it is Pakistan's 'fault' that Taliban leaders moved into their country, at the same time something needs to be said about their ability to defend the entirity of their Nation.
ReplyDeleteIn any event, the US needs to ensure Pakistani success in it's defense of the Taliban, not becasue of the "war on terror" but to secure the border to ensure success in Afghanitan.
To play devil's advocate, it has been argued that in stroke of genius, President Zardari may have made the deal with the Taliban in order to regain popular support for Pakistan's war against the Taliban. He may have assumed that the Taliban would make life miserable for those, especially women, remaining in the Swat valley and then expand outward. Whether or not Zardari actually had this stroke of genius doesn't matter as this is exactly how events have played out since the deal.
ReplyDeleteThe Taliban does not enjoy popular support for its rule or its version of "Islamic law", but instead relies on Pashtun, anti-government feelings for its strength. By giving the people a small taste of what Taliban rule looks like, Zardari may have been able to neutralize this strength by becoming the better of two bad options Pakistani people have. Since this deal, the Pakistan Army has been busy in an offensive against the Taliban working to push them back from the gains they've made. Hopefully the Taliban will soon be defeated so that the Pashtun people may attempt to a life absent of war.
I agree with this article in that the position that Pakistan has taken with the Taliban is that of a detrimental nature and a recipe for disaster. In calling a true with the Taliban, Pakistan is essentially giving up part of its sovereignty to a terrorist organization and allowing terrorism to grow right in its backyard. Subsequently, Al Qaeda and the Taliban will be able to flourish in Pakistan and have taken control of the region of Swat and caused mayhem and chaos there by closing down schools for girls and terrorizing civilians. Furthermore, with this true, the Taliban will surely become larger and stronger in this area, since it realizes that Pakistan doesn’t pose much of a threat to them now.
ReplyDeleteIn addition, other countries, like the United States obviously will not look upon this move as a favorable or advantageous one and in fact, this will cause other countries to view Pakistan in a more negative light and lead them to believe that Pakistan can not control its internal conflicts anymore and may take matters into their own hands to prevent the loss of democratic nation.
I am baffled as to why Pakistani leaders believe that deals with the Taliban are an advantageous and effective strategy or how it will help the state of Pakistan in any way. In fact, in the few months that this deal has been brokered, chaos in Swat has broken out and resulting in the fleeing of those civilians to different areas. I agree with Dr. Khan that Pakistan needs the assistance of other countries to fight the Taliban to help restore order in a country that has been spiraling out of control.